1d • General discussion
NFP
That's the big one for the month - US Jobs Report. Your screenshot is 3:30pm Nairobi time = 8:30am New York.
The 3 red folders = high impact. All 3 hit at the same minute, so expect huge volatility on USD pairs, Gold, US30/NAS100.
Here's what's coming today, Fri Sep 4:
*1. Non-Farm Employment Change (NFP)*
How many jobs the US added last month. The most watched.
- Previous: -23K jobs (a shock decline in July)
- Forecast for August: +53K to +56K rebound
- Consensus range is wide: -25K to +121K, so any surprise will move market hard.
August usually undershoots because of summer seasonal quirks with education jobs. 6ec9e590
*2. Unemployment Rate*
- Previous: 4.1%
- Forecast: 4.1% steady, some banks see 4.2% risk. 6ec9
*3. Average Hourly Earnings m/m*
Wage inflation - what the Fed watches for rate decisions.
- Previous: +0.05%
- Forecast: +0.3% m/m and +3.0% y/y 6ec9
Why it matters today:
We are in "slow hire, slow fire" mode according to economists. The Fed meeting is Sep 16-17, and this is the last jobs report before it. A weak NFP (+<50K or another negative) = Fed more likely to pause/cut. A strong NFP (>100K) = gives them cover to hike. 5ced
Trader tip: Don't trade the first 5-15 mins if you're not experienced. Spreads widen, slippage is brutal. If you do, wait for the actual vs forecast.
Actuals should be out already - did you see the numbers at 3:30pm?
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NFP
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