Here are the four numbers I run before I buy anything. ARV, the rehab budget, the lending and holding costs, and the purchase price. In that order on purpose, because the first three produce the fourth. The short version: - ARV: 3 to 5 solds from the last 3 to 6 months, close by, matching condition, size, and style. If the comps come in at $350K, $299K, and $315K, you center on a conservative number and that's your number. Every dollar of ARV you imagine comes out of your profit later. - Rehab budget: you have to be nails on this one. The $5,000 paint job that's really $7,500. The punch list, the landscaping, $500 here and $1,000 there. That drift is how a $25K profit quietly becomes $17K. Add 5 to 10% contingency, because you open up walls and find out what's actually back there. - Lending & holding costs: the hidden number almost everybody forgets. 1 to 3 points, processing fees that are mostly padding, title, insurance, interest every month, property taxes every single day you hold, utilities to keep the lights on for your crew. And you're paying closing costs on both sides of a flip. - Purchase price: ARV minus the rehab, minus all those costs, minus your minimum profit. That's your max allowable offer. Every dollar over it comes straight out of your profit. The asking price has nothing to do with it. Me and my partner have a $30K to $40K minimum on a deal. If the math doesn't get there, we don't do the deal. There are a hundred deals out there that look good until you dig into the math. Math doesn't lie. If it's not a hell yes, it's a hell no. ▶️ Watch the full breakdown below. What's your minimum profit number on a flip, and do you actually hold the line on it?

We put a Pflugerville flip under contract last month. We had to put $1960 down as earnest money and at a glance it looked like a deal worth doing. Buy at $200K and resell around $315K. Once we walked the property, we started underwriting it for real. And here's what I want you to see: a bad deal rarely shows up bad on day one. It gets worse the deeper you dig. We built the real rehab scope. $59,102. Margin got tighter. We priced the money. Senior loan at 9%, gap funding at 12%, about $6,200 in interest carry. Tighter again. We added the costs everybody forgets. Origination, title, insurance, taxes, utilities, sell-side. All-in landed at $300,130. Ran the exit at a $315K resale. Here's where it left us: - Projected profit: $14,870 - Margin: 4.7% - Contingency in the budget: $5,373 Sit with that a second. To make $14,870, we'd borrow around $290K, carry it three to four months, run a full rehab, and sell into a market that owes us nothing. The whole thing rides on $5,373 of cushion. One bad roof, one slow buyer, one surprise, and the profit is gone. Two surprises and we're paying to do the deal. Every number we checked said the same thing, louder each time. This one didn't pencil. So we terminated. We let $1,960 in earnest money go and we walked. That $1,960 was the cheapest money we spent all quarter. A bad flip on this one would've cost us five figures and a whole season of our lives. If it's not a HELL YES, it's a hell no. And a 4.7% margin was a hell no the deeper we looked. The pencil doesn't lie. If you wanna see our underwriting, peep the deal package attached. 👉 What's the smallest margin you'll take on a three-to-four-month flip before you walk? Drop your number below, and be honest about whether the deal on your desk right now clears it.

Welcome to Flip by the Numbers. Glad you're here. Before you post anything, I want to tell you what this place is about. ✏️ WHAT THIS IS This is a community for flippers and wholesalers who want the truth about a deal before they own it. We underwrite deals together, out in the open. We build rehab budgets that hold up when the contractor actually shows up. We count every cost, including the ones that never make the highlight reel. If you wholesale, you belong here too. You're the first person to underwrite a flip, and pricing an assignment starts with running your buyer's numbers. 🚫 WHAT THIS IS NOT I'll be straight with you. There's no hype in here, and you don't need to be crushing it to post. There's no pitch waiting at the end of a free training. If you post a win that skipped the math, expect questions, because a win without numbers is just a story. And if you pitch a member in the DMs, I'll remove you the first time it happens. 📋 THE GROUND RULES 1. Build each other up. Be tough on the numbers and kind to the person. Someone posting their first underwrite is doing something most people never work up the nerve to do. Help them get better. 2. Be genuinely helpful. Answer the way you'd want someone to answer you if your earnest money were on the line. If your answer is "it depends," say what it depends on. 3. Show your math. Opinions are welcome. Opinions with numbers are what change decisions. 4. Walk-aways are wins. If you passed on a bad deal this week, post it in Wins & Walk-Aways. Walking away from a bad number takes more discipline than closing ever will. Around here, if it's not a HELL YES, it's a hell no. 👇 TWO THINGS TO DO RIGHT NOW 1. Drop an intro in the comments. Your market, your strategy, and how many deals you've done. Zero is a great answer. This place was built for people starting at zero. 2. Watch for Monday's Deal Check. Real deal, real numbers, and a poll. Take a swing at it. Wrong answers are how everyone here got good. Glad you're in. Let's find out what pencils.