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Jul 19 •
One rule here: run the numbers before you fall in love
Welcome to Flip by the Numbers. Glad you're here. Before you post anything, I want to tell you what this place is about. ✏️ WHAT THIS IS This is a community for flippers and wholesalers who want the truth about a deal before they own it. We underwrite deals together, out in the open. We build rehab budgets that hold up when the contractor actually shows up. We count every cost, including the ones that never make the highlight reel. If you wholesale, you belong here too. You're the first person to underwrite a flip, and pricing an assignment starts with running your buyer's numbers. 🚫 WHAT THIS IS NOT I'll be straight with you. There's no hype in here, and you don't need to be crushing it to post. There's no pitch waiting at the end of a free training. If you post a win that skipped the math, expect questions, because a win without numbers is just a story. And if you pitch a member in the DMs, I'll remove you the first time it happens. 📋 THE GROUND RULES 1. Build each other up. Be tough on the numbers and kind to the person. Someone posting their first underwrite is doing something most people never work up the nerve to do. Help them get better. 2. Be genuinely helpful. Answer the way you'd want someone to answer you if your earnest money were on the line. If your answer is "it depends," say what it depends on. 3. Show your math. Opinions are welcome. Opinions with numbers are what change decisions. 4. Walk-aways are wins. If you passed on a bad deal this week, post it in Wins & Walk-Aways. Walking away from a bad number takes more discipline than closing ever will. Around here, if it's not a HELL YES, it's a hell no. 👇 TWO THINGS TO DO RIGHT NOW 1. Drop an intro in the comments. Your market, your strategy, and how many deals you've done. Zero is a great answer. This place was built for people starting at zero. 2. Watch for Monday's Deal Check. Real deal, real numbers, and a poll. Take a swing at it. Wrong answers are how everyone here got good. Glad you're in. Let's find out what pencils.
16d •
📐 Four numbers decide every flip. Most people only run two of them.
Here are the four numbers I run before I buy anything. ARV, the rehab budget, the lending and holding costs, and the purchase price. In that order on purpose, because the first three produce the fourth. The short version: - ARV: 3 to 5 solds from the last 3 to 6 months, close by, matching condition, size, and style. If the comps come in at $350K, $299K, and $315K, you center on a conservative number and that's your number. Every dollar of ARV you imagine comes out of your profit later. - Rehab budget: you have to be nails on this one. The $5,000 paint job that's really $7,500. The punch list, the landscaping, $500 here and $1,000 there. That drift is how a $25K profit quietly becomes $17K. Add 5 to 10% contingency, because you open up walls and find out what's actually back there. - Lending & holding costs: the hidden number almost everybody forgets. 1 to 3 points, processing fees that are mostly padding, title, insurance, interest every month, property taxes every single day you hold, utilities to keep the lights on for your crew. And you're paying closing costs on both sides of a flip. - Purchase price: ARV minus the rehab, minus all those costs, minus your minimum profit. That's your max allowable offer. Every dollar over it comes straight out of your profit. The asking price has nothing to do with it. Me and my partner have a $30K to $40K minimum on a deal. If the math doesn't get there, we don't do the deal. There are a hundred deals out there that look good until you dig into the math. Math doesn't lie. If it's not a hell yes, it's a hell no. ▶️ Watch the full breakdown below. What's your minimum profit number on a flip, and do you actually hold the line on it?
24d •
How my most recent deal died...literally
Hopefully this isn't too bad a taste, but every so often a deal crosses your desk that looks almost too good. This was one of them. Off-market house here in Austin. A wholesaler had it locked up. New roof, newer HVAC, and the "rehab" was really just a trash-out and some paint. Clean it up, list it, done. Here's how it penciled: - Purchase: $328,000 - Rehab budget: ~$40,000 - Resale / ARV: $450,000 - Projected profit: $35,802 - Margin: 8%, about 26% annualized For a trash-out and some cosmetics, that is a strong number. Deals that easy make me suspicious, so we started digging. Everything checked out. Roof, mechanicals, comps, title. Then the seller's disclosure notice landed, and the whole thing turned on a single line. Someone had been killed in the house. A recent, violent death, in the same home we were about to fix up and sell to a family. I have walked hundreds of distressed properties. Fire, foundation failures, hoarder houses, homes taken down to the studs. In all those years I had never run into this one. It is the rare kind of damage a contractor can't quote. We passed. Some things you don't put your name on, and reselling a house with that history to an unsuspecting buyer is one of them. That $35,802 looked great right up until it didn't. The wildest deal-killers I have ever seen never showed up in the numbers. They showed up in the story of the house. So read the disclosure notice line by line before you fall in love with a deal, because the worst surprises are the ones no budget has a line for. 👉 What is the strangest thing that ever killed one of your deals? I don't think mine can be topped, but I'd love to be proven wrong. See Police Report Here
20d •
How I bought a house for 5k...
Here's a deal posted about on Instagram, but it more than penciled and shows how you can still make the spreads work in today's market. Bought it for $85,000 cash. Put $80,000 into it, also cash. The ARV hit at 230k which had us only leave 5k in the property when the refinance was complete! The numbers: - Purchase: $85,000, all cash - Rehab: $80,000, all cash - All in: $165,000 - After Repair Value: $230,000 What that $80,000 bought: - 1970s wall paneling and the carpet hiding under it, gone - Reconfigured the layout and brought the kitchen forward so the flow actually works - Old bathroom became a primary suite attached to one of the bedrooms - A dead closet became a second full bathroom - Dated house in, clean 3 bed 2 bath out That second bath is where most of the value moved. One bathroom caps who will buy the house and what they'll pay for it. Then we refinanced and pulled our capital back out. The $161,000 is back in the account and ready for the next deal, and we still own the house with roughly $65,000 in equity sitting in it. Buying cash meant no points, no junk lender fees, and no interest clock ticking while my contractors worked. The tradeoff is real too: every dollar I had was locked in one house until that refi cleared. You have to be right on the numbers going in, because there's no lender double-checking your math for you. Cash and refi out, or leverage from day one? What's your play right now, and why?
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23d •
How we underwrite deals - Full Walk-Thru
The 70% rule said I could pay $202,500 for this Leander flip. Once I ran the real underwriting, the all-in acquisition came to $211,781 after a $20,000 wholesaler assignment fee, lender points, processing fees, title, and insurance. Rehab then ran almost 20% over budget, and holding costs stacked on top across a two and a half month hold. The deal still projects around $60,000 profit, and I only knew that because I ran every line before I signed. ▶️ Watch the full 13-minute walkthrough. I screen-share the actual underwriting, line by line, including the parts that made me wince. What line item has burned you worst? Rehab overruns, lender junk fees, or a hold that ran long?
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skool.com/flipbythenumbers
For flippers & wholesalers who run the numbers before they buy. Underwriting, rehab budgets, true-cost analysis — no hype, no guru math.
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